Disasters and civilian victimization: Exploring the dynamic effect in Africa, 1997–2017

How do natural disasters affect the treatment of civilians by non-state actors? On one hand, conflict literature argues that adverse shocks influence strategic interplay between rebel groups and government, potentially increasing level violence against civilians. other sociological research on they increase social integration cooperation are thus expected to reduce risk violent behaviour. In this study, we contend dynamics different in short term long after a disaster strikes. We argue lead decrease perpetrated run. However, over time temporary improvement starts decline, civilian victimization. To examine potential temporal dynamic, combine georeferenced information one-sided (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data; ACLED) data (Emergency Database; EM-DAT). Our results confirm dynamic effects. This has important implications for our understanding how can relationship civilians, groups, governments.